The Weak Supply and Demand Pattern Persisted, with Supply Disruptions Remaining the Core Contradiction in the Tin Market [SMM Tin Futures Brief Review]

On September 1, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2510 contract remained in the doldrums, with futures under sustained pressure in the afternoon session. It closed at 273,240 yuan/mt, down 2,570 yuan (0.93%) from the previous session. The intraday trading range was 271,540-279,010 yuan/mt, with a settlement price of 273,770 yuan/mt. Trading volume reached 146,445 lots, while open interest fell by 10,315 lots to 35,983 lots, indicating heightened risk-averse sentiment. Meanwhile, LME tin prices also retreated, with the three-month contract closing at $34,865/mt, down $85 (0.24%). The session high and low were $35,150 and $34,760 respectively, reflecting cautious overseas market activity.

Macro factors presented a mixed picture, as expectations for liquidity easing offset underlying demand concerns. Growing expectations for a September US Fed interest rate cut pushed the US dollar index down to 97.8, enhancing the allocation value of commodities amid global liquidity easing and providing a floor for tin prices. Domestically, the expanded trade-in policy boosted NEV consumption (CAAM forecasts 16 million units in 2025 NEV sales). However, overseas trade risks persisted: preliminary EU and Malaysian anti-dumping rulings on Chinese tinplate, coupled with potential tariff escalations under Trump's "America First" policy, could suppress traditional export demand.

Short-Term Outlook: Tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend amid supply disruptions and weak demand, with key support at the 270,000 yuan psychological level. Accelerated production resumptions in Myanmar or increased Indonesian exports may intensify downward pressure. The SHFE most-traded contract is projected to trade between 270,000-276,000 yuan/mt, while LME tin may fluctuate within $34,500-35,500. Investors should monitor Wa State policy developments and guidance from the US Fed's September FOMC meeting.